Where Are The Bikes?

There is a national bike shortage, unlike anything I have seen before. This is due to increased demand and extensive disruptions to the supply chain. My advice: when you see something that you like – BUY IT. I expect to have a very limited inventory of our most popular bicycles very soon.

That message came from Charlie McCorkle, co-founder and owner of the Bicycle Habitat shops here in New York.  He is echoing somthing I've heard and read from sources all over this country, as well as in England, France and other places:  The shutdown or limited schedules in effect on transit systems, restrictions on travel and increased numbers of people working from home (or not at all) have boosted the demand for bicycles.  People who haven't been astride two wheels in decades are mounting saddles and pushing pedals to get to their jobs in hospitals, nursing homes, shipping centers and other places where essential work is done.  Other folks are riding bikes to shop at whatever places are open, and I've noticed more families (or, at least, adults and children) riding together than I can ever recall seeing.

But the restrictions on travel--and employees who are too sick to work or are self-quaranitining--mean that bicycle manufacturers, importers, wholesalers and shippers means that fewer bikes are being produced, and whatver bikes are produced are slower to arrive in shops.  Moreover, most bike dealers are, ironically, remaining open for fewer hours, and with fewer employees (due to social distancing regulations), so it takes longer for bikes to go from their shipping cartons to the shop floor.

This situation reminds me of the 1970s North American Bike Boom.  At its peak--around 1972-73--domestic manufacturers simply couldn't crank out bikes, and importers couldn't bring them to this country, quickly enough.  Customers frequently had months-long wait times for popular models from major brands.  I know, because I was one of those customers:  I placed a deposit on a Schwinn Continental in July 1972, just after my birthday, and didn't receive it until the middle of October. 

Back then, companies simply couldn't keep pace for a sudden surge in demand.  This time, though, the capacity is there, but the people aren't.  Also, during the Bike Boom, most bikes purchased in the US were made in-country or came from Europe or Japan.  Now, the vast majority of bikes and bike-related items sold here come from China or Southeast Asia, where production has decreased or stopped altogether.  So, while the bike shortage of the Bike Boom didn't extend to other pars of the market or economy, bikes are in short supply now for the same reasons medical suppliles and other goods are hard to find right now.

Forever And Connecticut

It’s a classic beautiful spring afternoon.  After doing what I needed to do, I took off.  

Up through the winding path of Pelham Bay Park and the side streets of Westchester County I rode.  Even though I was pedaling into the wind, I felt as if i could go forever.

I ended up in Connecticut, feeling younger than my years.  It was that kind of ride.

When Things Return To "Normal"

Yesterday, this article caught my attention.

Since 2010, cycling fatalities have been on the rise as driver and passenger fatalities have reached all-time lows.  During the decade, the number of cyclists has increased.  So has the number of motor vehicles on the road.  Those trends, in themselves, may not be considered causes in the increased number of cyclist deaths.  

One factor, I believe, is that drivers are more distracted:  If I had a nickel for every time I saw someone looking at a screen instead of the street, I could rescue Mavic.  I have also experienced increasing hostilty from drivers, who sometimes resent cyclists whom they see as privileged, entitled or any other negative stereotype you've heard about milennials. (All right, I still don't see what's the big deal about avocado toast.)  Moreover, at the risk of seeming as if I'm stereotyping, I think that the rise of Uber, Lyft and other ride-share companies has put more reckless or simply bad drivers, and unsafe cars, on the road.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, most streets have been blissfully free of traffic. So, it will be interesting to see how statistics from March and April of this year compare with the same months of recent years.  Will there be fewer injuries and fatalities?  And, if there are, will the unfortunate "normal" levels return once traffic becomes as dense as it was before the shutdowns?

Then again, I wonder whether traffic will return to previous levels.  Some companies might decide that people who are working from home can continue to do so--or that they don't need those employees after all.  If that happens, I hope all of those newly-displaced workers don't become Uber or Lyft drivers!