The Latest Pandemics?

 During the worst days of the COVID-19 pandemic, I and nearly everyone I knew had a relative, friend, co-worker, neighbor or other acquaintance who died from the illness. Something similar happened during the AIDS crisis, before effective treatments came along:  Between Memorial Day and Christmas of 1991, five people—including two good friends—were claimed by AIDS-related illnesses.

Lately, when I type “bicycle news” into a browser, I feel as if I’m getting a view of two other “pandemics,” if you will. The first one I’ll describe is, in its own way, as dire as—and, arguably, more preventable than—the COVID and AIDS epidemics. The other isn’t nearly so tragic, though it brings sadness and inconvenience to many.

Every day, it seems, there are more reports of cyclists killed or seriously injured when they are struck by— or more infrequently, strike—motor vehicles. Such incidents, which are often misnamed as “accidents,” are as often as not a result of poor road or bike infrastructure: For example, an intersection is configured, signals are timed (and dangerous laws enforced) so that cyclists cross directly into the path of turning vehicles.

(What I know about public health is on par with what I know about sub-atomic physics. So take what I am about to say for what it’s worth: If the Centers for Disease Control could declare—rightly, as they did—that gun violence in the US a public health crisis, the needless deaths of cyclists and pedestrians should also be so designated.)

The other, less catastrophic “epidemic” is part of the COVID pandemic’s fallout. As I and others noted, there was a “boom,” however brief, during the epidemic’s early days:  Many people took up, or returned to, cycling while already-active cyclists like me rode even more than we’d already been riding. 

Ironically, some shops (most notably Harris Cyclery, Sheldon Brown’s old home base) closed their doors because they ran out of bikes, parts, helmets and other related items just as nothing was coming through the supply chains. But even more shops—and manufacturers and suppliers of bicycles and related goods—fell victim during the past two years or so. In some cases, those companies ordered merchandise once supply chains opened up, but the ‘boom” went “bust.” 

There were also other challenges. People who might have bought traditional bicycles in the recent past are now buying electric bikes. And among buyers of non-assisted bikes, tastes—and the ways people buy bikes and related goods—change.

But another iconic company faced another challenge: where they make their products. I suspect that had something to do with Mercian’s near-death experience last year: Their frames are built and finished by hand in high-wage, high-cost UK. (A group of local cycling enthusiasts purchased the company a few weeks after it ceased trading and re-hired the frame builders who’d been working there.) And location, location, location was cited in CEO Daniel Emerson’s announcement that Light & Motion, a California manufacturer of lights for cycling (and diving and photography) is ceasing operations.

One passage from his open letter, in particular, could have been a jab at President Joe Biden or President-elect Donald Trump, both of whom have talked about bringing manufacturing back to the US, albeit by different means: “[T]he political winds, regardless of the talk, have been against US manufacturing, which continues its decline.”

I’m no economist, but my guess, however uneducated, is that his announcement should be heeded as a warning: It will take more than rhetoric, an “inflation reduction act” or punitive tariffs to bring manufacturing, of bicycle lights or anything else, “back” to the US. For one thing, once companies like Light & Motion shutter, their resources and expertise move elsewhere—or are simply lost. Factories become condos and cannot be re-opened as manufacturing facilities. Also, even if the product—whether it’s a bike light or an iPhone—were to be made in some low-wage, low-tax, non-union state, they probably will need components made in China or other countries. (If you bought, say, a US-made Cannondale or Trek, almost everything hung on the frame—and, perhaps the material for the frame itself —came from somewhere else.)

So, I would say that the two “epidemics” I’ve mentioned—bicycle fatalities and the demise of bicycle-related businesses—and the ways in which the COVID and AIDS epidemics unnecessarily claimed lives, are both due, at least in part, to wrongheadedness or mendacity on the part of politicians and policy-makers.

Will “The Tesla Of Bicycles “ Go The Way Of De Lorean?

 Henry Ford did something 110 years ago that some considered bold and others thought was crazy:  He increased his workers’ pay to $5.00 a day.  He did it mainly to stanch the turnover that bled his workforce and others in the industry. He reasoned—correctly—that a more stable workforce would be more efficient.

His action would mean, not surprisingly, that other employers, in and outside the auto industry, had to increase their wages. And that led to another phenomenon that, wrongly, has been cited as Ford’s main motivation for increasing his employees’ compensation:  Many more of them could afford the cars—mainly, Model Ts—they were sending forth from assembly lines. Mind you, the car was still a significant, if not major, purchase for most of those assemblers. But the Model T was certainly more attainable for them than automobiles that were made before the advent of the assembly line, and on the wages workers previously earned.

What if Ford’s gambles hadn’t paid off?  What if, after introducing the assembly line and a vehicle that practically defined “economy car” and paying his workers more, the company lost money—or showed a net profit that was less than the price of one of the vehicles it produced?

He would have had a situation like the one Brompton now faces. For year ending in March 2024, the British folding bike maker cleared only £4602 ($5696 at today’s exchange rate) in profit:  less than one of its top-of the-range T Line Explore bikes sells for. 

What is perhaps most startling, at least for the company and the bicycle industry, is that the previous year netted £10.7 million.  In other words, Brompton lost 99 percent of its profitability in just one year.

Analysts blame Brompton’s predicament on many of the same woes that have beset the bicycle industry during the past couple of years.  Surges in demand, combined with supply-chain disruptions led to the closure of some bike shops. The ones that survived placed hefty orders once supplies became available again. But the pandemic “boom” went bust and retailers found themselves discounting overstocks.

Brompton’s situation was complicated, I believe, by the kinds of people who were likely to buy one of their bikes—and the image of those bikes and the company. The latter can be summed up by one shop owner who calls Brompton “the Tesla of bicycles.” I think he was on to something.  “It’s not just the prices,” he explained. “A lot of people think they’re bikes for people who live in Soho or by BAM (the Brooklyn Academy of Music).”

And that brings us to a significant part of Brompton’s demographic.  While competition from eBike rental schemes and manufacturers like British startup GoCycle has affected the entire industry, it seemed to hit Brompton particularly hard: It seems, to me, that many Brompton customers, especially young professionals, were seeking easily-rideable and -portable transportation that looked stylish even more than they sought actual bicycles.

So it’s no surprise that Brompton plans to launch a more utilitarian lineup that includes eBikes. That, company boss Will Butler-Adams, is a “cause for optimism “ that there are “opportunities on the other side” for Brompton and other bike companies that can weather the storm.

Not The Chain Reaction They’d Planned

 We love to patronize our favorite local bike shop.  But I—and I am sure many of you—have bought stuff from an online retailer (or their predecessors—mail-order catalogues—remember those?) oh, once or twice.

One of the local dealers I patronized (until it wasn’t so local for me anymore) said he couldn’t blame people for buying parts from Performance or Bike Nashbar.  “Their prices are better than what I can get from my distributor,” he lamented.

Performance and Nashbar are in the tire tracks of history.  Now,’it seems, two more recent giants the online bike business may join them.

In 2016, Chain Reaction Cycles, based in Belfast, Northern Ireland and Wiggle, in Portsmouth in England’s south coast, merged. At the time, to join two companies that were already offering good deals on in-demand bikes, parts and related items into one that would have even greater buying power and would therefore offer even better deals to customers.

But another event that same year would contribute to the company’s current situation: the vote to secede from the European Union, a.k.a. Brexit. (Scotland voted to stay.) The “divorce” was finalized, if you will, at 23:00 GMT on 31 January 2020.

One effect has been higher tariffs, not only on imports to, but also exports from, the UK.  The latter included, in the years before the “breakup,” many orders from outside the country.  They included customers from EU countries—and, on a few occasions, yours truly.   American customers didn’t have to pay the Value Added Tax.  So, when the exchange rate was favorable to the dollar, I purchases not only Brooks saddles, but also French Mavic rims and Velox rim taped, Swiss DT spokes, German Continental tires and even Japanese Shimano cassettes for considerably less than I could have bought them Stateside.

The UK-EU split came early in the COVID pandemic. So, some of the losses Wiggle-CRC incurred from prices increasing for European customers were offset by the COVID bike boom.  That “boom,” however, seems to be going bust.  At least, people aren’t buying as many bikes and parts as they were three years ago.

According to industry insiders, Wiggle/CRC’s parents company, Sigma Sports United is “re-structuring” —which includes, among other things, ending its relationships with “underperforming assets” like Wiggle/CRC—and therefore de-listing from the New York Stock Exchange.  Those same insiders are saying that Wiggle-CRC has stopped paying its suppliers and intends to file for insolvency.

From what I’ve been reading and hearing, they’re not the only ones who have “buyer’s remorse” over Brexit.

If It Fits, Grab It!

Recently, I helped a friend buy a bike.

She's about my age, give or take a couple of years, but hasn't had a bike since she was a teenager.  Seeing other people (including yours truly) astride two wheels "made me think:  what fun!  what a great way to get around!"

The search wasn't easy, though.  Of course, I had to think about what kind of bike would ease her back into riding and fit her well.

I think one of those goals was accomplished with a folding bike. Whether we met the other goal, though, is debatable:  It's not a Brompton or other high-end folder, so I'm not sure it fits anybody well.

But, as you surely know, the pandemic has induced a bicycle shortage even more acute, I think, than the ones that marked the 1970s Bike Boom.  So people like my friend are taking whatever they can get: