On Thin Ice, Literally

Some years ago, I read Fooled By Randomness.  Its author, Nassim Nicholas Taleb--who is credited with coining the term "black swan"-- made his money on Wall Street before embarking on an academic career. (Hmm...Is that what I should have done?)  What I remember about the book now is that in it, Talib shared one of the lessons he learned as a trader:  People trust to chance precisely the events they shouldn't and try to control those things that are bound by fate.  

One problem, I think, is that people who work in jobs that jobs that reward caution, too often, play it safe in other areas of their lives:  They are the kind of people who will order the same dish in any restaurant of any kind anywhere in the world.  Conversely, some people who work in areas where risk-taking is rewarded, or at least expected, tend to take unnecessary and even dangerous chances with other things. 

An example of the latter kind of person might be Boston cyclist and vlogger Lucas Brunelle.  "I ride my bike the same way I trade stocks," he explained.  What's more, he documents his risky rides on videos he posts to YouTube.  To wit:

On 15 February, he departed from a parking lot in Allston and pedaled onto an frozen Charles River. At least, that's how the river probably looked to him. He transversed about 800 feet before falling through a crack in the ice.

Venturing onto any glazed body of water is risky. But ponds and lakes, which are usually stagnant and filled with fresh water, are more likely to develop a thick icy crust than a river, which has a current.  What makes a river like the Charles even more treacherous is that while it normally contains fresh water, salty currents from Boston Harbor--an inlet of the Atlantic Ocean--wash into it.  Salt water freezes at significantly lower temperatures (which is why, among the major oceans, only the Arctic and Antarctic freeze), so a river like the Charles might not develop a solid base underneath what appears to be a coat of ice.

Ever the risk-taker, Brunelle took to the ice the following week.  And, he says, he plans to continue his risky rides.  After all, what rewards him as a trader will make his rides rewarding, right?  Just ask Nassim Nicholas Taleb.